How TwentyFourKeys Works
TwentyFourKeys uses a statistical model to score candidates
The TwentyFourKeys Social Media tool is a software program which scores House of Keys candidates based on their engagements and activity across all of the major social media platforms, relative to other candidates in their constituency
The model is based on their social media engagements along with a series of premiums that exist within manx political history, such as being an incumbent, a relative of a former MHK, or a closely defeated candidate in a previous election.
Below are the results of the current model on the Douglas South by-election of last year
As you can see, the model was able to predict the winning candidates, with an average deviation of 4.0% between the model scores and the real life results expressed as a percent of the final vote.
The model was also able to partition the set of candidates into high-value candidates (with scores > 10) and low-value candidates (score < 10). The model was also able to properly discount the internet virality of low-value candidates such as HM Sole and David Fowler
The under-scoring of some candidates (Jessop, Allen) is based on their relatively lower internet profile than other candidates. Conversely, low-performing candidates with a stronger internet presence were over-scored in the model (Oliphant-Smith, Pinkerton). There is always room for improvement and the model is regularly improving and looking at different angles of analysis.
Results are updated daily and presented on the TwentyFourKeys.com website
The model scores are simply rating a candidates popularity and not necessarily a prediction of the percentage of votes for the 2021 keys election